Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
