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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.