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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

Yet this year's competition is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and recent strugglers improving together. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and entertaining season, he's up against five other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still